Fred CornellIndependent polling averages

2028 presidential primary polls

DemocraticAverage, %
  1. Kamala Harris 29.2 per cent
  2. Gavin Newsom 16.5 per cent
  3. Pete Buttigieg 12.2 per cent
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezA. Ocasio-Cortez 11.7 per cent
  5. Jon Ossoff 9.6 per cent
All Democratic candidates
  1. Mark Kelly 6.7 per cent
  2. Josh Shapiro 5.3 per cent
  3. Cory Booker partial coverage 3.2 per cent
  4. JB Pritzker partial coverage 3.2 per cent
  5. Andy Beshear 3.1 per cent
  6. Rahm Emanuel partial coverage 0.6 per cent
RepublicanAverage, %
  1. JD Vance 42.8 per cent
  2. Marco Rubio 24.5 per cent
  3. Donald Trump Jr. 12.4 per cent
  4. Ron DeSantis 9.1 per cent
  5. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.R. F. Kennedy Jr. 5.3 per cent
All Republican candidates
  1. Nikki Haley partial coverage 3.3 per cent
  2. Ted Cruz 3.2 per cent
  3. Tucker Carlson 2.1 per cent
  4. Vivek Ramaswamy partial coverage 1.4 per cent
Dem 30 questions, Rep 32 questionsNYT databaseMethod

Polling average: share of primary voters naming each candidate, across qualifying national primary poll questions, rescaled to leave out undecided and non-candidate answers. Market prices are a separate measure and are not part of the average.

Source: the New York Times polling database. One poll often asks several questions, so counts are qualifying poll questions, not polls.

This page publishes no win probability, no electoral college projection and no state forecast for 2028.

How this is made

Harris and Vance lead the 2028 primary polls.

Candidate pages: Kamala HarrisGavin NewsomHarris and Newsom

Matchup polls

Which pairings of a named Democrat and a named Republican are in our poll feed for November 2028, counted and listed question by question, not averaged.

2028 general election matchup polls

What changed

Change in the polling average, in points

Since the stored average of 7 and 30 days earlier. A dash means no comparable stored average exists.

Democratic candidates, change in points
Democratic7 days30 days
Kamala Harris−2.4−3.7
Gavin Newsom−0.6−0.6
Pete Buttigieg0.0−0.2
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.6+0.7
Jon Ossoff+1.8+1.6
Mark Kelly−0.1−0.3
Josh Shapiro−0.5−1.0
Cory Booker––
JB Pritzker−0.1–
Andy Beshear+0.2−0.3
Rahm Emanuel−0.1−0.1
Republican candidates, change in points
Republican7 days30 days
JD Vance−1.0−1.0
Marco Rubio+2.6+3.7
Donald Trump Jr.−0.3−1.8
Ron DeSantis0.0+0.1
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.+0.1−0.6
Nikki Haley−0.2−0.8
Ted Cruz−0.1−0.5
Tucker Carlson+0.1−0.2
Vivek Ramaswamy−0.3−0.9

Latest 2028 polls

General election matchups and state primary polls are listed one by one. They are not averaged. This page publishes no win probability, no electoral college projection and no state forecast for 2028.

General election matchups

42 questions with fieldwork ending in the last 180 days. The 20 most recent of 42 are shown. Each row is one poll question as published; tap it for the whole line-up.

National McLaughlin & Associates 1,000 LVRubio 48 Ocasio-Cortez 38

Fieldwork 30 Oct to 5 Nov 2026. 1,000 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Marco Rubio (R)48
  2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)38
  3. Don't know14
National McLaughlin & Associates 1,000 LVVance 49 Ocasio-Cortez 39

Fieldwork 30 Oct to 5 Nov 2026. 1,000 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)49
  2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)39
  3. Don't know13
National YouGov 1,413 AButtigieg 36 Vance 34

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,413 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Pete Buttigieg (D)36
  2. JD Vance (R)34
  3. Don't know23
  4. Aaron Rodgers7
National YouGov 1,409 AVance 35 Ocasio-Cortez 35

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,409 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)35
  2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)35
  3. Don't know24
  4. Stephen A. Smith6
National YouGov 1,407 AOcasio-Cortez 36 Vance 35

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,407 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)36
  2. JD Vance (R)35
  3. Don't know22
  4. Aaron Rodgers6
National YouGov 1,413 AOcasio-Cortez 40 Vance 38

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,413 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)40
  2. JD Vance (R)38
  3. Don't know22
National YouGov 1,407 AVance 34 Cuban 34

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,407 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)34
  2. Mark Cuban (D)34
  3. Don't know26
  4. Aaron Rodgers6
National YouGov 1,413 ANewsom 37 Vance 35

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,413 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Gavin Newsom (D)37
  2. JD Vance (R)35
  3. Don't know21
  4. Aaron Rodgers7
National YouGov 1,407 AVance 34 Cuban 34

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,407 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)34
  2. Mark Cuban (D)34
  3. Don't know26
  4. Stephen A. Smith6
National YouGov 1,414 ACuban 39 Vance 34

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,414 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Mark Cuban (D)39
  2. JD Vance (R)34
  3. Don't know27
National YouGov 1,412 ANewsom 41 Vance 36

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,412 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Gavin Newsom (D)41
  2. JD Vance (R)36
  3. Don't know23
National YouGov 1,407 ANewsom 37 Vance 34

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,407 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Gavin Newsom (D)37
  2. JD Vance (R)34
  3. Don't know23
  4. Stephen A. Smith6
National YouGov 1,409 AVance 35 Buttigieg 34

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,409 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)35
  2. Pete Buttigieg (D)34
  3. Don't know25
  4. Stephen A. Smith7
National YouGov 1,415 AButtigieg 38 Vance 36

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,415 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Pete Buttigieg (D)38
  2. JD Vance (R)36
  3. Don't know25
National UMass Lowell/YouGov 1,000 LVOcasio-Cortez 45 Vance 42

Fieldwork 2 to 4 Oct 2026. 1,000 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)45
  2. JD Vance (R)42
  3. Don't know7
  4. Would not vote3
  5. Someone else3
National UMass Lowell/YouGov 1,000 LVNewsom 46 Vance 42

Fieldwork 2 to 4 Oct 2026. 1,000 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Gavin Newsom (D)46
  2. JD Vance (R)42
  3. Don't know6
  4. Someone else4
  5. Would not vote2
National UMass Lowell/YouGov 1,000 LVNewsom 44 Rubio 42

Fieldwork 2 to 4 Oct 2026. 1,000 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Gavin Newsom (D)44
  2. Marco Rubio (R)42
  3. Don't know9
  4. Someone else3
  5. Would not vote1
National UMass Lowell/YouGov 1,000 LVRubio 43 Ocasio-Cortez 43

Fieldwork 2 to 4 Oct 2026. 1,000 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Marco Rubio (R)43
  2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)43
  3. Don't know9
  4. Someone else3
  5. Would not vote2
National UMass Lowell/YouGov 1,000 LVH. Biden 37 Trump Jr. 36

Fieldwork 2 to 4 Oct 2026. 1,000 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Hunter Biden (D)37
  2. Donald Trump Jr. (R)36
  3. Someone else10
  4. Would not vote9
  5. Don't know8
National Quantus Insights 1,200 LVVance 45.1 Ocasio-Cortez 41.8

Fieldwork 26 to 28 Aug 2026. 1,200 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)45.1
  2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)41.8
  3. Don't know9.6
  4. Someone else3.5

State primaries

35 questions with fieldwork ending in the last 180 days. The 20 most recent of 35 are shown. Each row is one poll question as published; tap it for the whole line-up.

FL Big Data Poll LV11 named

Fieldwork 26 to 30 Oct 2026. Republican primary. likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)30.6
  2. Ron DeSantis (R)25.6
  3. Marco Rubio (R)25.2
  4. Robert F. Kennedy (R)4.5
  5. Don't know4
  6. Ted Cruz (R)2.7
  7. Nikki Haley (R)2.1
  8. Tulsi Gabbard (R)1.7
  9. Brian Kemp (R)1.3
  10. Rand Paul (R)0.8
  11. Glenn Youngkin (R)0.8
  12. Steve Bannon (R)0.5
  13. Someone else0.3
CA McLaughlin & Associates 419 LV13 named

Fieldwork 17 to 20 Oct 2026. Democratic primary. 419 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Don't know23
  2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)18
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)17
  4. Gavin Newsom (D)14
  5. Mark Kelly (D)10
  6. Kamala Harris (D)7
  7. JB Pritzker (D)3
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3
  9. Cory Booker (D)2
  10. Gretchen Whitmer (D)1
  11. Rahm Emanuel (D)1
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0
  13. Jared Polis (D)0
  14. Wes Moore (D)0
NH St. Anselm 734 LV6 named

Fieldwork 19 to 20 Oct 2026. Republican primary. 734 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Marco Rubio (R)38
  2. JD Vance (R)38
  3. Don't know11
  4. Ron DeSantis (R)5
  5. Robert F. Kennedy (R)4
  6. Someone else2
  7. Ted Cruz (R)1
  8. Glenn Youngkin (R)1
NH St. Anselm 784 LV15 named

Fieldwork 19 to 20 Oct 2026. Democratic primary. 784 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Pete Buttigieg (D)28
  2. Jon Ossoff (D)14
  3. Mark Kelly (D)11
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)10
  5. Don't know9
  6. Gavin Newsom (D)8
  7. Kamala Harris (D)5
  8. JB Pritzker (D)3
  9. Josh Shapiro (D)2
  10. Andy Beshear (D)2
  11. Ro Khanna (D)2
  12. Someone else1
  13. Wes Moore (D)1
  14. Cory Booker (D)1
  15. Rahm Emanuel (D)1
  16. Chris Murphy (D)0
  17. Gretchen Whitmer (D)0
MN Big Data Poll 249 LV12 named

Fieldwork 29 to 30 Sep 2026. Republican primary. 249 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)40
  2. Marco Rubio (R)22.5
  3. Ron DeSantis (R)8.3
  4. Don't know6.4
  5. Nikki Haley (R)4.5
  6. Robert F. Kennedy (R)4.5
  7. Tucker Carlson (R)3.7
  8. Rand Paul (R)2.6
  9. Ted Cruz (R)2.5
  10. Glenn Youngkin (R)2.1
  11. Someone else1
  12. Tulsi Gabbard (R)1
  13. Brian Kemp (R)0.8
  14. Steve Bannon (R)0.2
MN Big Data Poll 297 LV10 named

Fieldwork 29 to 30 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 297 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)24.3
  2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)15.3
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)12.3
  4. Don't know11.9
  5. Gavin Newsom (D)10.5
  6. Mark Kelly (D)7.2
  7. Jon Ossoff (D)6.3
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)5.3
  9. Andy Beshear (D)3.1
  10. Someone else2.2
  11. Stephen A. Smith (D)1.4
  12. Gretchen Whitmer (D)0.3
NC Big Data Poll 331 LV12 named

Fieldwork 27 to 29 Sep 2026. Republican primary. 331 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)40.2
  2. Marco Rubio (R)18.2
  3. Robert F. Kennedy (R)9.5
  4. Ron DeSantis (R)9.2
  5. Don't know5.5
  6. Nikki Haley (R)5.2
  7. Ted Cruz (R)4.2
  8. Rand Paul (R)3.4
  9. Someone else1.8
  10. Tucker Carlson (R)1.1
  11. Tulsi Gabbard (R)0.6
  12. Glenn Youngkin (R)0.5
  13. Brian Kemp (R)0.3
  14. Steve Bannon (R)0.3
NC Big Data Poll 297 RV10 named

Fieldwork 27 to 29 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 297 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)30.7
  2. Pete Buttigieg (D)14.8
  3. Gavin Newsom (D)13.6
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)8.7
  5. Don't know8.4
  6. Josh Shapiro (D)7.5
  7. Mark Kelly (D)5.4
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)3.3
  9. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.8
  10. Someone else2.1
  11. Andy Beshear (D)2
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0.9
NC Big Data Poll 281 LV10 named

Fieldwork 27 to 29 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 281 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)31.3
  2. Pete Buttigieg (D)14.5
  3. Gavin Newsom (D)14.1
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)8
  5. Josh Shapiro (D)7.9
  6. Don't know7.8
  7. Mark Kelly (D)5.4
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)3
  9. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.9
  10. Someone else2.2
  11. Andy Beshear (D)2
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0.9
NC Big Data Poll 355 RV11 named

Fieldwork 27 to 29 Sep 2026. Republican primary. 355 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)39.2
  2. Marco Rubio (R)18.3
  3. Ron DeSantis (R)9.9
  4. Robert F. Kennedy8.8
  5. Don't know7
  6. Nikki Haley (R)5
  7. Ted Cruz (R)4
  8. Rand Paul (R)3.5
  9. Someone else1.7
  10. Tucker Carlson (R)1
  11. Tulsi Gabbard (R)0.6
  12. Glenn Youngkin (R)0.5
  13. Brian Kemp (R)0.3
  14. Steve Bannon (R)0.3
OH Big Data Poll 340 LV12 named

Fieldwork 26 to 27 Sep 2026. Republican primary. 340 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)40.7
  2. Marco Rubio (R)14.4
  3. Tulsi Gabbard (R)10.6
  4. Robert F. Kennedy (D)7.1
  5. Steve Bannon (R)6.3
  6. Nikki Haley (R)6.2
  7. Ron DeSantis (R)6.1
  8. Ted Cruz (R)2.4
  9. Tucker Carlson (R)1.7
  10. Rand Paul (R)1.6
  11. Someone else1.4
  12. Glenn Youngkin (R)1.2
  13. Brian Kemp (R)0.1
  14. Don't know0
OH Big Data Poll 349 RV12 named

Fieldwork 26 to 27 Sep 2026. Republican primary. 349 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)40
  2. Marco Rubio (R)14.2
  3. Tulsi Gabbard (R)11.4
  4. Robert F. Kennedy (D)7
  5. Steve Bannon (R)6.3
  6. Nikki Haley (R)6.2
  7. Ron DeSantis (R)6
  8. Ted Cruz (R)2.4
  9. Rand Paul (R)2.4
  10. Tucker Carlson (R)1.7
  11. Someone else1.4
  12. Glenn Youngkin (R)1.2
  13. Brian Kemp (R)0.1
  14. Don't know0
OH Big Data Poll 316 RV10 named

Fieldwork 26 to 27 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 316 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)22.6
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)15.6
  3. Don't know12.9
  4. Pete Buttigieg (D)12.1
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)9.8
  6. Josh Shapiro (D)7.6
  7. Andy Beshear (D)5
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)4.3
  9. Someone else3.1
  10. Gretchen Whitmer (D)3.1
  11. Mark Kelly (D)2.8
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)1
OH Big Data Poll 302 LV10 named

Fieldwork 26 to 27 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 302 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)21.9
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)16.2
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)12.7
  4. Don't know11.5
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)10.1
  6. Josh Shapiro (D)7.9
  7. Andy Beshear (D)5.3
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)4.5
  9. Gretchen Whitmer (D)3.3
  10. Mark Kelly (D)3
  11. Someone else2.6
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)1.1
TX Big Data Poll 315 RV10 named

Fieldwork 24 to 26 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 315 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)31.8
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)16
  3. Don't know11.4
  4. Pete Buttigieg (D)9.2
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)9.2
  6. Jon Ossoff (D)4
  7. Mark Kelly (D)3.8
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3.4
  9. Someone else3.3
  10. Andy Beshear (D)3
  11. Stephen A. Smith (D)2.8
  12. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.2
TX Big Data Poll 402 RV12 named

Fieldwork 24 to 26 Sep 2026. Republican primary. 402 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)39
  2. Marco Rubio (R)15.2
  3. Don't know10
  4. Ted Cruz (R)7.3
  5. Robert F. Kennedy (R)6.3
  6. Ron DeSantis (R)5.3
  7. Tulsi Gabbard (R)3
  8. Rand Paul (R)2.8
  9. Someone else2.2
  10. Glenn Youngkin (R)2.1
  11. Brian Kemp (R)2.1
  12. Nikki Haley (R)1.8
  13. Steve Bannon (R)1.8
  14. Tucker Carlson (R)1
TX Big Data Poll 284 LV10 named

Fieldwork 24 to 26 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 284 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)30.9
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)16.5
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)10.1
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)9.8
  5. Don't know9.3
  6. Jon Ossoff (D)4.4
  7. Mark Kelly (D)3.9
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3.8
  9. Andy Beshear (D)3.3
  10. Stephen A. Smith (D)3.1
  11. Someone else2.5
  12. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.3
TX Big Data Poll 376 LV12 named

Fieldwork 24 to 26 Sep 2026. Republican primary. 376 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)40.6
  2. Marco Rubio (R)16
  3. Don't know9.5
  4. Robert F. Kennedy (R)6.7
  5. Ted Cruz (R)6.5
  6. Ron DeSantis (R)4.8
  7. Tulsi Gabbard (R)3.2
  8. Rand Paul (R)2.3
  9. Glenn Youngkin (R)2.1
  10. Nikki Haley (R)1.9
  11. Steve Bannon (R)1.9
  12. Brian Kemp (R)1.8
  13. Someone else1.6
  14. Tucker Carlson (R)1.1
GA Big Data Poll 313 LV10 named

Fieldwork 21 to 23 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 313 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Jon Ossoff (D)29.6
  2. Kamala Harris (D)24
  3. Gavin Newsom (D)12.9
  4. Pete Buttigieg (D)7.1
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)6
  6. Mark Kelly (D)5.5
  7. Don't know4.2
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3.5
  9. Andy Beshear (D)3.3
  10. Someone else2
  11. Gretchen Whitmer (D)1.1
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0.8
GA Big Data Poll 338 RV12 named

Fieldwork 21 to 23 Sep 2026. Republican primary. 338 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)37.3
  2. Marco Rubio (R)15.1
  3. Brian Kemp (R)14.4
  4. Ron DeSantis (R)12.8
  5. Don't know6.3
  6. Robert F. Kennedy (R)4.2
  7. Nikki Haley (R)2.7
  8. Ted Cruz (R)2.6
  9. Tucker Carlson (R)1.4
  10. Steve Bannon (R)1.3
  11. Glenn Youngkin (R)1.3
  12. Tulsi Gabbard (R)0.4
  13. Someone else0.1
  14. Rand Paul (R)0.1

Prediction markets

Market-implied probability, %. What traders pay on each platform for a contract that the candidate wins the nomination: the platform's number, not a poll and not a forecast by Fred Cornell. Each platform is shown alone, never averaged with the other or mixed with the polls.

Democratic nomination, market-implied probability, %
DemocraticPolymarketKalshi
Jon Ossoff2825.5
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez1614.5
Gavin Newsom1011.5
Pete Buttigieg65
Kamala Harris65
Josh Shapiro55
Republican nomination, market-implied probability, %
RepublicanPolymarketKalshi
JD Vance35.534.5
Marco Rubio1917
Ron DeSantis15.515
Tucker Carlson53.5
John McEntee45
Ted Cruz33

Sources

Polls: the New York Times polling database (nytimes.com/newsgraphics/polls), with pollster grades from FiveThirtyEight. Each poll is credited to its pollster.

Market prices: Polymarket and Kalshi, read from each platform’s public data twice a day. Prices are the platforms’, not our forecast.

The method is on the 2028 methodology page.