Fred CornellIndependent polling averages

Harris and Newsom  ·  2028 Democratic primary

DemocraticAverage, %
  1. Kamala Harris 29.2 per cent
  2. Gavin Newsom 16.5 per cent
  3. Pete Buttigieg 12.2 per cent
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezA. Ocasio-Cortez 11.7 per cent
  5. Jon Ossoff 9.6 per cent
All 30 questionsNYT databaseMethod

Polling average: share of primary voters naming each candidate, across qualifying national primary poll questions, rescaled to leave out undecided and non-candidate answers. Market prices are a separate measure and are not part of the average.

Source: the New York Times polling database. One poll often asks several questions, so counts are qualifying poll questions, not polls.

Two averages side by side are not a head-to-head.

A vote share is not a chance of winning, and neither is a market price.

This page publishes no win probability, no electoral college projection and no state forecast for 2028.

How this is made

Harris is first and Newsom second in the Democratic primary polls.

Both on one ballot

The questions listed on this page are a different set from the national questions behind the averages. Those are counted in the figures above and are not listed here. State primary questions naming both and at least one other candidate, newest first. Tap a row for the whole line-up, the two in bold. The 12 most recent of 17 are shown.

NH St. Anselm 784 LVHarris 5 Newsom 8

Fieldwork 19 to 20 Oct 2026. Democratic primary. 784 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Pete Buttigieg (D)28
  2. Jon Ossoff (D)14
  3. Mark Kelly (D)11
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)10
  5. Don't know9
  6. Gavin Newsom (D)8
  7. Kamala Harris (D)5
  8. JB Pritzker (D)3
  9. Josh Shapiro (D)2
  10. Andy Beshear (D)2
  11. Ro Khanna (D)2
  12. Someone else1
  13. Wes Moore (D)1
  14. Cory Booker (D)1
  15. Rahm Emanuel (D)1
  16. Chris Murphy (D)0
  17. Gretchen Whitmer (D)0
CA McLaughlin & Associates 419 LVHarris 7 Newsom 14

Fieldwork 17 to 20 Oct 2026. Democratic primary. 419 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Don't know23
  2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)18
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)17
  4. Gavin Newsom (D)14
  5. Mark Kelly (D)10
  6. Kamala Harris (D)7
  7. JB Pritzker (D)3
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3
  9. Cory Booker (D)2
  10. Gretchen Whitmer (D)1
  11. Rahm Emanuel (D)1
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0
  13. Jared Polis (D)0
  14. Wes Moore (D)0
MN Big Data Poll 297 LVHarris 24.3 Newsom 10.5

Fieldwork 29 to 30 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 297 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)24.3
  2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)15.3
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)12.3
  4. Don't know11.9
  5. Gavin Newsom (D)10.5
  6. Mark Kelly (D)7.2
  7. Jon Ossoff (D)6.3
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)5.3
  9. Andy Beshear (D)3.1
  10. Someone else2.2
  11. Stephen A. Smith (D)1.4
  12. Gretchen Whitmer (D)0.3
NC Big Data Poll 297 RVHarris 30.7 Newsom 13.6

Fieldwork 27 to 29 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 297 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)30.7
  2. Pete Buttigieg (D)14.8
  3. Gavin Newsom (D)13.6
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)8.7
  5. Don't know8.4
  6. Josh Shapiro (D)7.5
  7. Mark Kelly (D)5.4
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)3.3
  9. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.8
  10. Someone else2.1
  11. Andy Beshear (D)2
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0.9
NC Big Data Poll 281 LVHarris 31.3 Newsom 14.1

Fieldwork 27 to 29 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 281 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)31.3
  2. Pete Buttigieg (D)14.5
  3. Gavin Newsom (D)14.1
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)8
  5. Josh Shapiro (D)7.9
  6. Don't know7.8
  7. Mark Kelly (D)5.4
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)3
  9. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.9
  10. Someone else2.2
  11. Andy Beshear (D)2
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0.9
OH Big Data Poll 316 RVHarris 22.6 Newsom 15.6

Fieldwork 26 to 27 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 316 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)22.6
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)15.6
  3. Don't know12.9
  4. Pete Buttigieg (D)12.1
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)9.8
  6. Josh Shapiro (D)7.6
  7. Andy Beshear (D)5
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)4.3
  9. Someone else3.1
  10. Gretchen Whitmer (D)3.1
  11. Mark Kelly (D)2.8
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)1
OH Big Data Poll 302 LVHarris 21.9 Newsom 16.2

Fieldwork 26 to 27 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 302 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)21.9
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)16.2
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)12.7
  4. Don't know11.5
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)10.1
  6. Josh Shapiro (D)7.9
  7. Andy Beshear (D)5.3
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)4.5
  9. Gretchen Whitmer (D)3.3
  10. Mark Kelly (D)3
  11. Someone else2.6
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)1.1
TX Big Data Poll 315 RVHarris 31.8 Newsom 16

Fieldwork 24 to 26 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 315 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)31.8
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)16
  3. Don't know11.4
  4. Pete Buttigieg (D)9.2
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)9.2
  6. Jon Ossoff (D)4
  7. Mark Kelly (D)3.8
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3.4
  9. Someone else3.3
  10. Andy Beshear (D)3
  11. Stephen A. Smith (D)2.8
  12. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.2
TX Big Data Poll 284 LVHarris 30.9 Newsom 16.5

Fieldwork 24 to 26 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 284 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)30.9
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)16.5
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)10.1
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)9.8
  5. Don't know9.3
  6. Jon Ossoff (D)4.4
  7. Mark Kelly (D)3.9
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3.8
  9. Andy Beshear (D)3.3
  10. Stephen A. Smith (D)3.1
  11. Someone else2.5
  12. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.3
GA Big Data Poll 313 LVHarris 24 Newsom 12.9

Fieldwork 21 to 23 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 313 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Jon Ossoff (D)29.6
  2. Kamala Harris (D)24
  3. Gavin Newsom (D)12.9
  4. Pete Buttigieg (D)7.1
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)6
  6. Mark Kelly (D)5.5
  7. Don't know4.2
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3.5
  9. Andy Beshear (D)3.3
  10. Someone else2
  11. Gretchen Whitmer (D)1.1
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0.8
GA Big Data Poll 320 RVHarris 24.1 Newsom 12.8

Fieldwork 21 to 23 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 320 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Jon Ossoff (D)29.7
  2. Kamala Harris (D)24.1
  3. Gavin Newsom (D)12.8
  4. Pete Buttigieg (D)7
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)5.9
  6. Mark Kelly (D)5.4
  7. Don't know4.6
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3.5
  9. Andy Beshear (D)3.3
  10. Someone else2
  11. Gretchen Whitmer (D)1.1
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0.8
TX Overton Insights 365 LVHarris 28.4 Newsom 11.5

Fieldwork 24 to 26 Aug 2026. Democratic primary. 365 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)28.4
  2. Pete Buttigieg (D)14.2
  3. Jon Ossoff (D)11.6
  4. Gavin Newsom (D)11.5
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)10.6
  6. Mark Kelly (D)9.4
  7. Would not vote8.8
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3.9
  9. Andy Beshear (D)0.9
  10. Rahm Emanuel (D)0.7

Standing and change

Change in points since the stored average of 7 and 30 days earlier. Two averages side by side are not a head-to-head.

Placement, coverage and the change in points since the stored average of 7 and 30 days earlier, Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom
Candidate7 days30 daysCoveragePlacement
Kamala Harris−2.4−3.730 of 30Main table, first of 11
Gavin Newsom−0.6−0.630 of 30Main table, second of 11

Prediction markets

Market-implied probability, %. What traders pay on each platform for a contract that the candidate wins the nomination: the platform's number, not a poll and not a forecast by Fred Cornell. Each platform is shown alone, never averaged with the other or mixed with the polls.

Democratic nomination, market-implied probability, %
DemocraticPolymarketKalshi
Kamala Harris65
Gavin Newsom1011.5

Kamala Harris Gavin Newsom All 2028 primary polls

Sources

Polls: the New York Times polling database (nytimes.com/newsgraphics/polls), with pollster grades from FiveThirtyEight. Each poll is credited to its pollster.

Market prices: Polymarket and Kalshi, read from each platform’s public data twice a day. Prices are the platforms’, not our forecast.

The method is on the 2028 methodology page.