United Kingdom · Westminster voting intention
Labour lead Reform UK by 7.4 points.
Updated 13 Nov 2026Average of 583 polls2,136 polls from 31 pollsters on recordFieldwork to 12 Nov How this is made
UK poll of polls: how the parties have moved
The daily average for each party. The shaded bands show the range the evidence allows for the two leading parties.
| Party | Now | 30 days | 90 days | Change | Range allowed |
|---|
fredcornell.comUpdated 13 Nov 2026 How this average is built
The field
Each band is the range of the average (90%). The tables below add a wider band, showing the range if the polls are as wrong as at past elections.
| Party | Estimate | Range of the average (90%) | If the polls are as wrong as at past elections |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 29.2 | 28.2 to 30.2 | 24.0 to 34.3 |
| Reform UK | 21.8 | 20.8 to 22.7 | 17.1 to 26.5 |
| Conservative | 21.9 | 21.0 to 22.8 | 17.2 to 26.6 |
| Lib Dems | 9.5 | 8.9 to 10.0 | 6.2 to 12.8 |
| Green | 9.0 | 8.3 to 9.7 | 5.8 to 12.3 |
| Other (incl. SNP, Plaid Cymru) | 8.7 | 7.9 to 9.5 | 5.4 to 11.9 |
| Lead | Estimate | Range of the average (90%) | If the polls are as wrong as at past elections |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour minus Reform UKLabour ahead | +7.4 | 5.8 to 9.0 | -1.3 to 16.0 |
| Labour minus ConservativeLabour ahead | +7.3 | 5.8 to 8.8 | -1.4 to 15.9 |
| Reform UK minus ConservativeLevel in the polling average | -0.1 | -1.6 to 1.3 | -8.3 to 8.1 |
About this average
The method changed on 22 October 2026. This is our average of British voting-intention polls. It uses eligible polls from 5 July 2024 onwards, and recent polls count most. The darker band is the range of the average (90%). In simulations, this range contained the true average 88% to 91% of the time. In tests on real polls, the model's 90% range for a new poll contained that poll's figure 86% of the time for Labour and 88% to 91% for the other main parties. The lighter band shows how far results have differed from the final polls at past elections; it is an illustration, not a forecast.
Full methodologyThe previous average (wra-v1.0), to download
Hover or tap a band for its exact bounds.
Change in 30 days
−1.2Reform UK, from 23% to 21.8%.
When is the next election?
By 15 Aug 2029The latest date the law allows. It can be called sooner.
Most recent poll
12 NovSurvation, fieldwork 11 to 12 November.
The gap between Labour and Reform UK
Labour's share minus Reform UK's, in points. Above the line Labour lead; below it Reform UK lead.
Labour lead by 7.4 points. A year ago Reform UK led by 12.1. Labour moved ahead in the average on 29 July 2026.
Seats if the swing were the same everywhere
326 seats for a majority, marked by the rule. Northern Ireland's 18 seats are counted separately.
Labour would win 365 seats, 39 more than the 326 needed for a majority.
This projection applies the change in each party's national share to every constituency alike. It ignores regional differences, tactical voting and local candidates, so treat it as an illustration of the national figures, not as a forecast.
Latest polls
The eight most recent voting-intention polls, newest first.
Survation 11–12 Nov · n=—
Labour 29%Conservative 21%Reform UK 23%Lib Dems 10%Green 7%
Find Out Now 11–12 Nov · n=2,641
Labour 27%Conservative 21%Reform UK 21%Lib Dems 9%Green 12%
Deltapoll 6–9 Nov · n=—
Labour 31%Conservative 20%Reform UK 24%Lib Dems 9%Green 8%
YouGov 8–9 Nov · n=2,437
Labour 27%Conservative 21%Reform UK 20%Lib Dems 12%Green 10%
More in Common 6–9 Nov · n=2,013
Labour 28%Conservative 25%Reform UK 20%Lib Dems 9%Green 7%
Opinium 4–6 Nov · n=2,050
Labour 28%Conservative 20%Reform UK 21%Lib Dems 10%Green 11%
Find Out Now 4 Nov · n=2,406
Labour 28%Conservative 21%Reform UK 20%Lib Dems 8%Green 13%
Deltapoll 30 Oct–2 Nov · n=—
Labour 30%Conservative 23%Reform UK 25%Lib Dems 7%Green 8%
| Date | Pollster | n | Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Green |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–12 Nov | Survation | — | 29 | 21 | 23 | 10 | 7 |
| 11–12 Nov | Find Out Now | 2,641 | 27 | 21 | 21 | 9 | 12 |
| 6–9 Nov | Deltapoll | — | 31 | 20 | 24 | 9 | 8 |
| 8–9 Nov | YouGovThe Times/Sky News | 2,437 | 27 | 21 | 20 | 12 | 10 |
| 6–9 Nov | More in CommonThe Daily Telegraph | 2,013 | 28 | 25 | 20 | 9 | 7 |
| 4–6 Nov | OpiniumThe Observer | 2,050 | 28 | 20 | 21 | 10 | 11 |
| 4 Nov | Find Out Now | 2,406 | 28 | 21 | 20 | 8 | 13 |
| 30 Oct–2 Nov | Deltapoll | — | 30 | 23 | 25 | 7 | 8 |