United States · 2026 House forecast
Median seats: Democrats 252, Republicans 183.
Our final forecast gave Democrats a 99% chance of winning the House. It gave Republicans a 1% chance, before the 3 November vote. This page does not report results. Next, follow Trump approval, 2028 polls and the latest US polls.
Seats
Each band covers 95 of 100 simulations. The line marks the 218 needed for a majority.
Median: Democrats 252, Republicans 183. In 95 of 100 simulations Democrats win between 222 and 287 seats.
The ten most competitive House races
The districts where each party's chance is closest to even.
| District | Dem chance | Rep chance | Margin | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH-15 | 50% | 50% | D+0.1 | 4 |
| OH-10 | 50% | 50% | R+0.1 | 3 |
| CO-3 | 49% | 51% | R+0.2 | 4 |
| TX-23 | 52% | 48% | D+0.2 | 2 |
| AL-2 | 49% | 51% | R+0.2 | 4 |
| MO-2 | 48% | 52% | R+0.3 | 4 |
| NV-2 | 48% | 52% | R+0.4 | 3 |
| TX-9 | 48% | 52% | R+0.4 | 3 |
| CO-5 | 53% | 47% | D+0.5 | 4 |
| SC-1 | 45% | 55% | R+0.7 | 5 |
Alaska is forecast on its own
The main challenger is an independent, so the seat sits outside the two-party model.
Nick Begich, Republican
75.6%chance of winning the seat.
Bill Hill, independent
24.4%chance of winning the seat.
What limits it
11 pollsOne of them carries about 54% of the weight.
Alaska figures are from the House forecast of 2 November 2026. The latest Alaska poll finished fieldwork on 30 October 2026.
How the forecast is made
Each chance is the share of simulated elections in which a party wins 218 seats or more. The simulations use district polls where they exist. Most districts have no eligible poll, and there the forecast relies on the structural estimate alone.