United States · 2026 Senate forecast
Expected seats: Democrats 52, Republicans 47, independents 1.
Our final forecast gave Democrats a 71% chance of winning 51 or more Senate seats. Republicans controlled the Senate in 24% of its simulations, including 50–50 outcomes decided by the Republican Vice-President. It was made before the 3 November vote. This page does not report results. Next, follow Trump approval, 2028 polls and the latest US polls.
Who holds the Senate after November
Four outcomes that together cover every result.
Seats
Each range covers 95 of 100 simulations. The line marks the 51 needed for a majority.
Expected seats: Democrats 52, Republicans 47, independents 1. In 95 of 100 simulations, Democrats hold between 46 and 58 seats. 34 Democratic and 31 Republican seats are not up for election this year.
The ten most competitive Senate races
35 seats are up for election in 2026. These are the ten where each party's chance is closest to even; every race is listed further down the page.
| State | Dem chance | Rep chance | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 50% | 50% | Even |
| IA | 52% | 48% | D+0.4 |
| AK | 41% | 59% | R+1.5 |
| SC | 40% | 60% | R+1.8 |
| OH (special) | 64% | 36% | D+2.4 |
| LA | 35% | 65% | R+2.7 |
| TX | 68% | 32% | D+3.1 |
| FL (special) | 24% | 76% | R+4.8 |
| ME | 77% | 23% | D+4.9 |
| MI | 83% | 17% | D+6.5 |
Every Senate race, with the candidates
All 35 contested seats, alphabetically. Chance of winning each seat and the mean simulated margin.
| State | Dem chance | Rep chance | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| AK | 41% | 59% | R+1.5 |
| AL | 3% | 97% | R+14.6 |
| AR | 2% | 98% | R+16.7 |
| CO | 100% | 0% | D+24.0 |
| DE | 99% | 1% | D+31.4 |
| FL (special) | 24% | 76% | R+4.8 |
| GA | 93% | 7% | D+11.7 |
| IA | 52% | 48% | D+0.4 |
| ID | 0% | 93% | — |
| IL | 98% | 2% | D+15.2 |
| KS | 50% | 50% | Even |
| KY | 8% | 92% | R+10.7 |
| LA | 35% | 65% | R+2.7 |
| MA | 100% | 0% | D+32.8 |
| ME | 77% | 23% | D+4.9 |
| MI | 83% | 17% | D+6.5 |
| MN | 89% | 11% | D+8.5 |
| MS | 12% | 88% | R+8.8 |
| MT | 0% | 92% | — |
| NC | 93% | 7% | D+10.5 |
| NE | 0% | 62% | — |
| NH | 92% | 8% | D+10.1 |
| NJ | 98% | 2% | D+25.5 |
| NM | 99% | 1% | D+21.6 |
| OH (special) | 64% | 36% | D+2.4 |
| OK | 0% | 100% | R+25.5 |
| OR | 99% | 1% | D+30.9 |
| RI | 100% | 0% | D+32.6 |
| SC | 40% | 60% | R+1.8 |
| SD | 0% | 95% | — |
| TN | 1% | 99% | R+21.8 |
| TX | 68% | 32% | D+3.1 |
| VA | 98% | 2% | D+24.3 |
| WV | 1% | 99% | R+32.9 |
| WY | 2% | 98% | R+27.3 |
Who controls the Senate now?
Republicans hold a majority in the current Senate. The forecast is for the Senate that sits after the November election.