Sweden · Riksdag polls since the election of 13 September 2026
Social Democrats lead with 26.7%.
Our average of 7 polls since the 13 September election, as of 13 November 2026.
Polls: pollsters' releases, via Swedish WikipediaHow this is made
Our average, and the change since the election
13 November 2026, from 7 polls. Each band is our 90% range.
Tick: the certified result.
| Party | Average | 90% range | Election | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social Democrats | 26.7% | 24.7–28.7 | 28.0% | −1.3 |
| Moderates | 23.9% | 21.8–26.0 | 19.9% | +4.0 |
| Sweden Democrats | 17.4% | 15.4–19.4 | 17.5% | −0.1 |
| Left Party | 8.1% | 6.1–10.1 | 8.4% | −0.3 |
| Green Party | 6.9% | 4.9–8.9 | 6.1% | +0.8 |
| Centre Party | 6.0% | 4.0–8.0 | 7.0% | −1.0 |
| Christian Democrats | 5.7% | 3.7–7.7 | 6.2% | −0.5 |
| Liberals | 4.0% | 2.0–6.0 | 5.3% | −1.3 |
Our average since the election
One line for each party, from our first estimate under the post-election rule, 26 October 2026.
Ring: the certified result of 13 September.
Polls since the election
Latest first. Under each figure, the change since the election, in points.
| Pollster | Fieldwork | S | M | SD | V | C | KD | MP | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verian | 26 Oct–8 Nov | 26.1 −1.9 | 23.3 +3.4 | 16.9 −0.6 | 8.5 +0.1 | 5.7 −1.3 | 6.3 +0.1 | 7.5 +1.4 | 4.1 −1.2 |
| Ipsos | 13–26 Oct | 27 −1.0 | 24 +4.1 | 19 +1.5 | 8 −0.4 | 6 −1.0 | 5 −1.2 | 6 −0.1 | 4 −1.3 |
| Indikator Opinion | 7–25 Oct | 27.0 −1.0 | 26.3 +6.4 | 16.3 −1.2 | 7.6 −0.8 | 5.8 −1.2 | 4.8 −1.4 | 7.3 +1.2 | 3.8 −1.5 |
| Verian | 28 Sep–11 Oct | 28.5 +0.5 | 22.3 +2.4 | 17.2 −0.3 | 7.8 −0.6 | 6.3 −0.7 | 5.9 −0.3 | 7.1 +1.0 | 3.7 −1.6 |
| Novus | 5–11 Oct | 25.9 −2.1 | 23.9 +4.0 | 18.0 +0.5 | 7.2 −1.2 | 6.7 −0.3 | 6.4 +0.2 | 6.5 +0.4 | 3.9 −1.4 |
| Ipsos | 15–27 Sep | 28 0.0 | 22 +2.1 | 17 −0.5 | 8 −0.4 | 7 0.0 | 6 −0.2 | 6 −0.1 | 4 −1.3 |
| Sentio | 21–25 Sep | 25.7 −2.3 | 22.7 +2.8 | 19.4 +1.9 | 10.0 +1.6 | 5.4 −1.6 | 5.6 −0.6 | 5.7 −0.4 | 4.1 −1.2 |
| Election result | 13 Sep | 28.0 | 19.9 | 17.5 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.3 |
The 2026 result, and our final average
The Social Democrats won the most votes, with 28.0%. The Social Democrats, Left, Centre and Green parties together won 176 of the 349 seats; the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals won 173. Turnout was 84.9%. Certified by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) on 19 September 2026. Our average is as published on polling day, 13 September.
| Party | Result | Our average | Difference | Inside our range? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social Democrats | 28.0% | 28.3% | +0.3 | Yes |
| Moderates | 19.9% | 17.2% | −2.7 | No |
| Sweden Democrats | 17.5% | 18.9% | +1.4 | Yes |
| Left Party | 8.4% | 7.9% | −0.5 | Yes |
| Centre Party | 7.0% | 7.6% | +0.6 | Yes |
| Christian Democrats | 6.2% | 6.7% | +0.5 | Yes |
| Green Party | 6.1% | 7.3% | +1.2 | Yes |
| Liberals | 5.3% | 4.0% | −1.3 | Yes |
Our final average was, on average, 1.1 points from each party's result. The result fell inside our range for 7 of the 8 parties. The largest miss was the Moderates: we had them on 17.2%; they won 19.9%, outside our range.
Our final pre-election average
13 September 2026, from 20 polls. Each band is our 90% range.
Tick: the certified result.