United States · 2026 midterm elections forecast
House median: Democrats 252, Republicans 183. Senate expected: Democrats 52, Republicans 47, independents 1.
Final forecast before the 3 November vote. It gave Democrats a 99% chance of winning the House and a 71% chance of winning 51 or more Senate seats. On the generic ballot, Democrats led by 8.3 points. Next, follow Trump approval, 2028 polls and the latest US polls.
Updated 3 Nov 2026How this is made
House of Representatives · 435 seats
Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%
Chance of winning 218 seats or more, in our final forecast before the 3 November vote.
House forecast →Senate · 35 seats contested
Our final forecast gave Democrats a 71% chance of winning 51 or more Senate seats
Republicans controlled the Senate in 24% of its simulations, including 50–50 outcomes decided by the Republican Vice-President.
Senate forecast →President · approval rating
Trump's approval rating is 36.9%
60.5% disapprove.
Approval tracker →The generic ballot
Which party voters would back for Congress, in the average of national polls. The shaded band is a nominal 90% interval (see the methodology). Its coverage has not been measured.
Democrats 51.4%, Republicans 43.1%, a lead of 8.3 points, in a weighted average of national polls from the past 365 days.
Before 3 September, each day's figure was calculated once and not updated when later polls arrived. See the historical data note in the methodology.
When are the midterm elections?
Tuesday 3 November 2026. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are contested.
Who controls Congress now?
Republicans hold majorities in both the House and the Senate. The forecasts are for the Congress elected in November.