Fred CornellIndependent polling averages

Kamala Harris  ·  2028 Democratic primary

DemocraticAverage, %
  1. Kamala Harris 29.2 per cent
  2. Gavin Newsom 16.5 per cent
  3. Pete Buttigieg 12.2 per cent
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezA. Ocasio-Cortez 11.7 per cent
  5. Jon Ossoff 9.6 per cent
30 of 30 questionsNYT databaseMethod

Polling average: share of primary voters naming each candidate, across qualifying national primary poll questions, rescaled to leave out undecided and non-candidate answers. Market prices are a separate measure and are not part of the average.

Source: the New York Times polling database. One poll often asks several questions, so counts are qualifying poll questions, not polls.

Where Kamala Harris stands in the primary field is not a head-to-head with any one opponent.

A vote share is not a chance of winning, and neither is a market price.

This page publishes no win probability, no electoral college projection and no state forecast for 2028.

How this is made

Kamala Harris leads the Democratic primary polls.

StandingFirst of 11 in the main table by polling average
Poll questions30 of 30 qualifying poll questions named Kamala Harris

Multi-candidate primary polls

The questions listed on this page are a different set from the national questions behind the averages. Those are counted in the figures above and are not listed here. State primary questions in which voters chose among three or more candidates. Each row is one question; tap it for the whole line-up. They are listed one by one and are not averaged. The 10 most recent of 17 are shown.

NH St. Anselm 784 LVHarris 5

Fieldwork 19 to 20 Oct 2026. Democratic primary. 784 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Pete Buttigieg (D)28
  2. Jon Ossoff (D)14
  3. Mark Kelly (D)11
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)10
  5. Don't know9
  6. Gavin Newsom (D)8
  7. Kamala Harris (D)5
  8. JB Pritzker (D)3
  9. Josh Shapiro (D)2
  10. Andy Beshear (D)2
  11. Ro Khanna (D)2
  12. Someone else1
  13. Wes Moore (D)1
  14. Cory Booker (D)1
  15. Rahm Emanuel (D)1
  16. Chris Murphy (D)0
  17. Gretchen Whitmer (D)0
CA McLaughlin & Associates 419 LVHarris 7

Fieldwork 17 to 20 Oct 2026. Democratic primary. 419 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Don't know23
  2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)18
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)17
  4. Gavin Newsom (D)14
  5. Mark Kelly (D)10
  6. Kamala Harris (D)7
  7. JB Pritzker (D)3
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3
  9. Cory Booker (D)2
  10. Gretchen Whitmer (D)1
  11. Rahm Emanuel (D)1
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0
  13. Jared Polis (D)0
  14. Wes Moore (D)0
MN Big Data Poll 297 LVHarris 24.3

Fieldwork 29 to 30 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 297 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)24.3
  2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)15.3
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)12.3
  4. Don't know11.9
  5. Gavin Newsom (D)10.5
  6. Mark Kelly (D)7.2
  7. Jon Ossoff (D)6.3
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)5.3
  9. Andy Beshear (D)3.1
  10. Someone else2.2
  11. Stephen A. Smith (D)1.4
  12. Gretchen Whitmer (D)0.3
NC Big Data Poll 297 RVHarris 30.7

Fieldwork 27 to 29 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 297 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)30.7
  2. Pete Buttigieg (D)14.8
  3. Gavin Newsom (D)13.6
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)8.7
  5. Don't know8.4
  6. Josh Shapiro (D)7.5
  7. Mark Kelly (D)5.4
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)3.3
  9. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.8
  10. Someone else2.1
  11. Andy Beshear (D)2
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0.9
NC Big Data Poll 281 LVHarris 31.3

Fieldwork 27 to 29 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 281 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)31.3
  2. Pete Buttigieg (D)14.5
  3. Gavin Newsom (D)14.1
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)8
  5. Josh Shapiro (D)7.9
  6. Don't know7.8
  7. Mark Kelly (D)5.4
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)3
  9. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.9
  10. Someone else2.2
  11. Andy Beshear (D)2
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0.9
OH Big Data Poll 316 RVHarris 22.6

Fieldwork 26 to 27 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 316 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)22.6
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)15.6
  3. Don't know12.9
  4. Pete Buttigieg (D)12.1
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)9.8
  6. Josh Shapiro (D)7.6
  7. Andy Beshear (D)5
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)4.3
  9. Someone else3.1
  10. Gretchen Whitmer (D)3.1
  11. Mark Kelly (D)2.8
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)1
OH Big Data Poll 302 LVHarris 21.9

Fieldwork 26 to 27 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 302 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)21.9
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)16.2
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)12.7
  4. Don't know11.5
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)10.1
  6. Josh Shapiro (D)7.9
  7. Andy Beshear (D)5.3
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)4.5
  9. Gretchen Whitmer (D)3.3
  10. Mark Kelly (D)3
  11. Someone else2.6
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)1.1
TX Big Data Poll 315 RVHarris 31.8

Fieldwork 24 to 26 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 315 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)31.8
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)16
  3. Don't know11.4
  4. Pete Buttigieg (D)9.2
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)9.2
  6. Jon Ossoff (D)4
  7. Mark Kelly (D)3.8
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3.4
  9. Someone else3.3
  10. Andy Beshear (D)3
  11. Stephen A. Smith (D)2.8
  12. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.2
TX Big Data Poll 284 LVHarris 30.9

Fieldwork 24 to 26 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 284 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)30.9
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)16.5
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)10.1
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)9.8
  5. Don't know9.3
  6. Jon Ossoff (D)4.4
  7. Mark Kelly (D)3.9
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3.8
  9. Andy Beshear (D)3.3
  10. Stephen A. Smith (D)3.1
  11. Someone else2.5
  12. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.3
GA Big Data Poll 313 LVHarris 24

Fieldwork 21 to 23 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 313 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Jon Ossoff (D)29.6
  2. Kamala Harris (D)24
  3. Gavin Newsom (D)12.9
  4. Pete Buttigieg (D)7.1
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)6
  6. Mark Kelly (D)5.5
  7. Don't know4.2
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3.5
  9. Andy Beshear (D)3.3
  10. Someone else2
  11. Gretchen Whitmer (D)1.1
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0.8

Hypothetical general election matchups

Questions asking whom voters would back in November 2028 if the named candidates were nominated. Neither side has been chosen; each question is listed as published and one matchup says nothing about another.

Candidates named against Kamala Harris in the general election questions listed below. The table counts questions; it does not say who is ahead.
OpponentQuestionsNewest endedPollsters
JD Vance2Emerson College, Zogby Analytics
Marco Rubio2Emerson College, Zogby Analytics
National Emerson College 1,000 LVRubio 48 Harris 43.1

Fieldwork 16 to 17 Aug 2026. 1,000 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Marco Rubio (R)48
  2. Kamala Harris (D)43.1
  3. Don't know8.9
National Emerson College 1,000 LVHarris 48.8 Vance 44.7

Fieldwork 16 to 17 Aug 2026. 1,000 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)48.8
  2. JD Vance (R)44.7
  3. Don't know6.5
National Zogby Analytics 1,003 LVHarris 46.3 Rubio 41.3

Fieldwork 1 to 4 Jul 2026. 1,003 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)46.3
  2. Marco Rubio (R)41.3
  3. Don't know12.4
National Zogby Analytics 1,003 LVHarris 47.9 Vance 43.3

Fieldwork 1 to 4 Jul 2026. 1,003 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)47.9
  2. JD Vance (R)43.3
  3. Don't know8.8

What changed

Change in points since the stored average of 7 and 30 days earlier.

Democratic candidates, change in points
Democratic7 days30 days
Kamala Harris−2.4−3.7

Prediction markets

Market-implied probability, %. What traders pay on each platform for a contract that the candidate wins the nomination: the platform's number, not a poll and not a forecast by Fred Cornell. Each platform is shown alone, never averaged with the other or mixed with the polls.

Democratic nomination, market-implied probability, %
DemocraticPolymarketKalshi
Kamala Harris65

Gavin Newsom Harris and Newsom All 2028 primary polls

Kamala Harris in matchup polls

Kamala Harris is in 2 pairings of a named Democrat and a named Republican in our poll feed, across 4 general election questions.

Kamala Harris in the 2028 matchup polls

Sources

Polls: the New York Times polling database (nytimes.com/newsgraphics/polls), with pollster grades from FiveThirtyEight. Each poll is credited to its pollster.

Market prices: Polymarket and Kalshi, read from each platform’s public data twice a day. Prices are the platforms’, not our forecast.

The method is on the 2028 methodology page.