Fred CornellIndependent polling averages

Gavin Newsom  ·  2028 Democratic primary

DemocraticAverage, %
  1. Kamala Harris 29.2 per cent
  2. Gavin Newsom 16.5 per cent
  3. Pete Buttigieg 12.2 per cent
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezA. Ocasio-Cortez 11.7 per cent
  5. Jon Ossoff 9.6 per cent
30 of 30 questionsNYT databaseMethod

Polling average: share of primary voters naming each candidate, across qualifying national primary poll questions, rescaled to leave out undecided and non-candidate answers. Market prices are a separate measure and are not part of the average.

Source: the New York Times polling database. One poll often asks several questions, so counts are qualifying poll questions, not polls.

Where Gavin Newsom stands in the primary field is not a head-to-head with any one opponent.

A vote share is not a chance of winning, and neither is a market price.

This page publishes no win probability, no electoral college projection and no state forecast for 2028.

How this is made

Gavin Newsom is second in the Democratic primary polls.

StandingSecond of 11 in the main table by polling average
Poll questions30 of 30 qualifying poll questions named Gavin Newsom

Multi-candidate primary polls

The questions listed on this page are a different set from the national questions behind the averages. Those are counted in the figures above and are not listed here. State primary questions in which voters chose among three or more candidates. Each row is one question; tap it for the whole line-up. They are listed one by one and are not averaged. The 10 most recent of 17 are shown.

NH St. Anselm 784 LVNewsom 8

Fieldwork 19 to 20 Oct 2026. Democratic primary. 784 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Pete Buttigieg (D)28
  2. Jon Ossoff (D)14
  3. Mark Kelly (D)11
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)10
  5. Don't know9
  6. Gavin Newsom (D)8
  7. Kamala Harris (D)5
  8. JB Pritzker (D)3
  9. Josh Shapiro (D)2
  10. Andy Beshear (D)2
  11. Ro Khanna (D)2
  12. Someone else1
  13. Wes Moore (D)1
  14. Cory Booker (D)1
  15. Rahm Emanuel (D)1
  16. Chris Murphy (D)0
  17. Gretchen Whitmer (D)0
CA McLaughlin & Associates 419 LVNewsom 14

Fieldwork 17 to 20 Oct 2026. Democratic primary. 419 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Don't know23
  2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)18
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)17
  4. Gavin Newsom (D)14
  5. Mark Kelly (D)10
  6. Kamala Harris (D)7
  7. JB Pritzker (D)3
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3
  9. Cory Booker (D)2
  10. Gretchen Whitmer (D)1
  11. Rahm Emanuel (D)1
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0
  13. Jared Polis (D)0
  14. Wes Moore (D)0
MN Big Data Poll 297 LVNewsom 10.5

Fieldwork 29 to 30 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 297 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)24.3
  2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)15.3
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)12.3
  4. Don't know11.9
  5. Gavin Newsom (D)10.5
  6. Mark Kelly (D)7.2
  7. Jon Ossoff (D)6.3
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)5.3
  9. Andy Beshear (D)3.1
  10. Someone else2.2
  11. Stephen A. Smith (D)1.4
  12. Gretchen Whitmer (D)0.3
NC Big Data Poll 297 RVNewsom 13.6

Fieldwork 27 to 29 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 297 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)30.7
  2. Pete Buttigieg (D)14.8
  3. Gavin Newsom (D)13.6
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)8.7
  5. Don't know8.4
  6. Josh Shapiro (D)7.5
  7. Mark Kelly (D)5.4
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)3.3
  9. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.8
  10. Someone else2.1
  11. Andy Beshear (D)2
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0.9
NC Big Data Poll 281 LVNewsom 14.1

Fieldwork 27 to 29 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 281 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)31.3
  2. Pete Buttigieg (D)14.5
  3. Gavin Newsom (D)14.1
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)8
  5. Josh Shapiro (D)7.9
  6. Don't know7.8
  7. Mark Kelly (D)5.4
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)3
  9. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.9
  10. Someone else2.2
  11. Andy Beshear (D)2
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0.9
OH Big Data Poll 316 RVNewsom 15.6

Fieldwork 26 to 27 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 316 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)22.6
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)15.6
  3. Don't know12.9
  4. Pete Buttigieg (D)12.1
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)9.8
  6. Josh Shapiro (D)7.6
  7. Andy Beshear (D)5
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)4.3
  9. Someone else3.1
  10. Gretchen Whitmer (D)3.1
  11. Mark Kelly (D)2.8
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)1
OH Big Data Poll 302 LVNewsom 16.2

Fieldwork 26 to 27 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 302 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)21.9
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)16.2
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)12.7
  4. Don't know11.5
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)10.1
  6. Josh Shapiro (D)7.9
  7. Andy Beshear (D)5.3
  8. Jon Ossoff (D)4.5
  9. Gretchen Whitmer (D)3.3
  10. Mark Kelly (D)3
  11. Someone else2.6
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)1.1
TX Big Data Poll 315 RVNewsom 16

Fieldwork 24 to 26 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 315 registered voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)31.8
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)16
  3. Don't know11.4
  4. Pete Buttigieg (D)9.2
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)9.2
  6. Jon Ossoff (D)4
  7. Mark Kelly (D)3.8
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3.4
  9. Someone else3.3
  10. Andy Beshear (D)3
  11. Stephen A. Smith (D)2.8
  12. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.2
TX Big Data Poll 284 LVNewsom 16.5

Fieldwork 24 to 26 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 284 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Kamala Harris (D)30.9
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)16.5
  3. Pete Buttigieg (D)10.1
  4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)9.8
  5. Don't know9.3
  6. Jon Ossoff (D)4.4
  7. Mark Kelly (D)3.9
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3.8
  9. Andy Beshear (D)3.3
  10. Stephen A. Smith (D)3.1
  11. Someone else2.5
  12. Gretchen Whitmer (D)2.3
GA Big Data Poll 313 LVNewsom 12.9

Fieldwork 21 to 23 Sep 2026. Democratic primary. 313 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Jon Ossoff (D)29.6
  2. Kamala Harris (D)24
  3. Gavin Newsom (D)12.9
  4. Pete Buttigieg (D)7.1
  5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)6
  6. Mark Kelly (D)5.5
  7. Don't know4.2
  8. Josh Shapiro (D)3.5
  9. Andy Beshear (D)3.3
  10. Someone else2
  11. Gretchen Whitmer (D)1.1
  12. Stephen A. Smith (D)0.8

Hypothetical general election matchups

Questions asking whom voters would back in November 2028 if the named candidates were nominated. Neither side has been chosen; each question is listed as published and one matchup says nothing about another. The 10 most recent of 11 are shown.

Candidates named against Gavin Newsom in the general election questions listed below. The table counts questions; it does not say who is ahead.
OpponentQuestionsNewest endedPollsters
JD Vance8Emerson College, Overton Insights, Tarrance Group, UMass Lowell/YouGov, YouGov, Zogby Analytics
Marco Rubio3Emerson College, UMass Lowell/YouGov, Zogby Analytics
National YouGov 1,413 ANewsom 37 Vance 35

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,413 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Gavin Newsom (D)37
  2. JD Vance (R)35
  3. Don't know21
  4. Aaron Rodgers7
National YouGov 1,412 ANewsom 41 Vance 36

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,412 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Gavin Newsom (D)41
  2. JD Vance (R)36
  3. Don't know23
National YouGov 1,407 ANewsom 37 Vance 34

Fieldwork 10 to 14 Oct 2026. 1,407 adults. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Gavin Newsom (D)37
  2. JD Vance (R)34
  3. Don't know23
  4. Stephen A. Smith6
National UMass Lowell/YouGov 1,000 LVNewsom 46 Vance 42

Fieldwork 2 to 4 Oct 2026. 1,000 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Gavin Newsom (D)46
  2. JD Vance (R)42
  3. Don't know6
  4. Someone else4
  5. Would not vote2
National UMass Lowell/YouGov 1,000 LVNewsom 44 Rubio 42

Fieldwork 2 to 4 Oct 2026. 1,000 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Gavin Newsom (D)44
  2. Marco Rubio (R)42
  3. Don't know9
  4. Someone else3
  5. Would not vote1
National Emerson College 1,000 LVNewsom 48.8 Vance 44.3

Fieldwork 16 to 17 Aug 2026. 1,000 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Gavin Newsom (D)48.8
  2. JD Vance (R)44.3
  3. Don't know6.9
National Emerson College 1,000 LVNewsom 47.7 Rubio 45.9

Fieldwork 16 to 17 Aug 2026. 1,000 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Gavin Newsom (D)47.7
  2. Marco Rubio (R)45.9
  3. Don't know6.4
National Zogby Analytics 1,003 LVRubio 40.3 Newsom 36.2

Fieldwork 1 to 4 Jul 2026. 1,003 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. Marco Rubio (R)40.3
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)36.2
  3. Don't know23.5
National Zogby Analytics 1,003 LVVance 45.1 Newsom 38.1

Fieldwork 1 to 4 Jul 2026. 1,003 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)45.1
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)38.1
  3. Don't know16.9
NV Tarrance Group 600 LVVance 47 Newsom 43

Fieldwork 20 to 24 Jun 2026. 600 likely voters. Whole line-up as published. Source

  1. JD Vance (R)47
  2. Gavin Newsom (D)43
  3. Don't know4

What changed

Change in points since the stored average of 7 and 30 days earlier.

Democratic candidates, change in points
Democratic7 days30 days
Gavin Newsom−0.6−0.6

Prediction markets

Market-implied probability, %. What traders pay on each platform for a contract that the candidate wins the nomination: the platform's number, not a poll and not a forecast by Fred Cornell. Each platform is shown alone, never averaged with the other or mixed with the polls.

Democratic nomination, market-implied probability, %
DemocraticPolymarketKalshi
Gavin Newsom1011.5

Kamala Harris Harris and Newsom All 2028 primary polls

Gavin Newsom in matchup polls

Gavin Newsom is in 2 pairings of a named Democrat and a named Republican in our poll feed, across 9 general election questions.

Gavin Newsom in the 2028 matchup polls

Sources

Polls: the New York Times polling database (nytimes.com/newsgraphics/polls), with pollster grades from FiveThirtyEight. Each poll is credited to its pollster.

Market prices: Polymarket and Kalshi, read from each platform’s public data twice a day. Prices are the platforms’, not our forecast.

The method is on the 2028 methodology page.